China Net/China Development Portal Network News Environmental pollution has always been an important content of national economic development and the realization of reform and innovation goals. From the source of emissions, industrial pollutants are an important part of pollution emissions. At the same time, heavy pollution industry is the main source of industrial pollutant discharge, which has a huge negative externality to the ecological environment system. Therefore, it is very important to explore the eco-environmental effects of industrial agglomeration from the perspective of heavily polluting industries.
There is trans-regional migration of industry in space, which is essentially to seek the optimal production location. With the increase of production costs, enterprises seeking to maximize profits will constantly move to adapt to the more complex market environment. Industries that bring serious negative externalities to the ecological environment are more sensitive to environmental policies, and are more vulnerable to changes in environmental policies that lead to industrial transfer. Usually, economically developed countries or regions will transfer such industries to areas with relatively backward economic development through production, investment and trade. Strictly speaking, the transfer of polluting industries comes from both international and domestic regions. The existing evidence shows that some polluting industries in China are transferring to the central and western regions. The industrial undertaking places have to bear the negative externalities of environmental pollution caused by industrial transfer while undertaking heavily polluting industries, so the spatial agglomeration of heavily polluting industries will reshape the spatial layout of industrial pollutants and become an important factor affecting regional environmental policies. Because the inter-regional flow of heavily polluting industries is an important reason that affects the regional pollutant discharge, it is very important to understand the influencing factors and driving mechanisms of the transfer of heavily polluting industries for correctly understanding the international or domestic industrial transfer that has taken place, adjusting the ecological environment protection policies of various regions (especially the central and western regions), and realizing the vision of a beautiful China with sustainable development.
At present, the analysis of environmental pollution effect brought by industrial transfer is relatively mature in academic circles, and the focus of discussion is on the hypothesis of "pollution refuge" and the empirical analysis of environmental Kuznets curve. Among them, foreign research mainly focuses on the national and industrial analysis scales, while domestic research mainly focuses on the provincial and municipal scales, and the industrial level research needs to be further improved. On the whole, the research on the agglomeration of pollution-intensive enterprises and its environmental effects has achieved rich results, but it is still very important to identify the agglomeration of heavily polluted industries and its environmental effects from a macro perspective, which is of great significance to analyze the agglomeration and transfer of industries from a macro scale, the preference of enterprises for migration and the environmental pollution of industrial undertaking areas from a micro scale. Therefore, under the background of constrained resource development, tightening environmental protection policies and slowing economic growth, it is of great significance to scientifically plan the transfer trend of heavily polluted industries and clarify the spatial agglomeration characteristics of heavily polluted industries to adjust the layout of major productive forces, comprehensively divide the main functional areas of each region, improve the ecosystem value of each region, efficiently deploy strategically around the overall national goal, and realize high-quality development of the whole region. This study focuses on three points: ① identifying the spatial distribution and agglomeration characteristics of heavily polluted industries in China in the past 20 years; (2) analyze the main factors that promote the agglomeration of heavily polluted industries, and whether the production cost (factor endowment), environmental regulation and foreign direct investment have promoted the agglomeration of heavily polluted industries in the central and western regions; ③ Analysis in the process of transferring heavily polluting industries,The transfer of pollutant discharge and whether the environmental pollution problems derived from the transfer of heavily polluting industries in the future are likely to continue to deteriorate.
Heavy pollution industry and its environmental effect analysis data set
Heavy pollution industry data set
This study collected the industrial economic data of China from 1999 to 2021, and the data came from the Statistical Yearbook of Industrial Economy of China. The types of industries involved in industrial economic data are detailed in Schedule 1 and Schedule 2. Among them, the extractive industry in 2004, the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas and water, and the lack of industrial economic data in 2017 are supplemented by the method of average filling.
At present, there is no strict and clear definition of heavy pollution industry, but most scholars mainly follow the environmental protection certification standards issued by government departments. The Guide to Environmental Information Disclosure of Listed Companies published by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment shows that heavily polluting industries mainly involve thermal power, steel, cement, electrolytic aluminum, coal, metallurgy, chemicals, petrochemicals, building materials, paper making, brewing, pharmaceuticals, fermentation, textiles, tanning and mining. In this study, the situation of heavily polluting industries in the industrial industry is defined with reference to the Catalogue of Classified Management of Environmental Verification Industries of Listed Companies (Huanban Letter [2008] No.373) issued by the former Ministry of Environmental Protection (Attached Tables 1 and 2).
Environmental pollution data set
Heavy pollution discharge is divided into waste water, waste gas and industrial solid waste according to pollution sources. Considering the consistency and consistency of data, some data in this study are used as substitute variables for robustness test to enhance the reliability of empirical results. Among them, the data of wastewater, waste gas and solid waste come from China Statistical Yearbook and China Environmental Statistical Yearbook; The data of environmental regulation, economic development level, market share, industrial structure and factor cost come from China Statistical Yearbook. The data of technological innovation (mainly focusing on R&D expenditure) comes from the Statistical Bulletin of National Science and Technology Expenditure published by the National Bureau of Statistics. The description and descriptive statistical results of the data are detailed in Schedule 3.
Measurement and empirical analysis of heavily polluting enterprises in China
Agglomeration characteristics of heavily polluting industries
By depicting the spatial distribution of the gross output value of heavily polluted industries in China in 1999, 2003, 2007, 2011, 2015 and 2021 (Figure 1), it is found that the heavily polluted industries in China obviously spread from east to west and from coastal to inland. On the whole, the spatial hierarchical structure is obvious, and there are peak-shifting characteristics in coastal provinces, central regions and northwest inland areas. Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Guangdong have always been the gathering highlands of heavily polluting industries, while the heavily polluting enterprises in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Henan and Sichuan have obvious development momentum and are potential new gathering areas of heavily polluting industries in the future.

From the spatial distribution map of heavily polluted industries in China from 1999 to 2021, we can see the development, transfer and diffusion trend of heavily polluted industries in the past 20 years. In 1999, the output value of heavily polluting industries in coastal provinces was significantly higher than that in other regions; Until 2007, Shandong, Jiangsu and Guangdong became areas with obvious concentration of heavily polluting industries. Since then, heavily polluting enterprises have gradually spread to Zhejiang, Liaoning, Hebei, Henan and other places. Around 2011, Sichuan and Inner Mongolia became the gathering highlands of heavy pollution industries in inland areas, and at the same time, heavy pollution industries further spread to Shanxi, Hubei, Anhui, Jiangxi and other central regions. After 2015, Shaanxi, Gansu, Chongqing, Guizhou and Yunnan have become the undertaking places and potential development areas for the transfer of heavily polluting industries. By the end of 2021, the heavily polluting industries in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia have grown rapidly, and the output value of heavily polluting industries in Sichuan, Shanxi, Hubei and Anhui has been increasing. On the whole, the development of heavy pollution industry in Northeast China is relatively backward, which is related to the development history and related policies in Northeast China to some extent.
Influencing factors and mechanism of heavy pollution industry agglomeration in China
influencing factor
This study holds that the agglomeration of heavily polluting industries is the result of industrial transfer and industrialization. The transfer of heavily polluting industries in China is essentially a change in the location choice of heavily polluting industries in China, and enterprises need to consider factor costs and regional acceptance policies. Due to the influence of heavily polluting industries on environmental pollution, local environmental policies usually need to be considered in the location selection of enterprises. The "pollution refuge" hypothesis holds that pollution-intensive industries tend to move to countries or regions with relatively low environmental access standards (environmental regulations). This hypothesis also has limitations, such as freedom of trade, law of one price, and differences in environmental regulations among countries or regions. Although there are trade barriers and transportation costs in reality, the (no) risk arbitrage mechanism between countries or regions makes the actual price level basically conform to the law of one price principle. When the product price is clear, the production cost (factor endowment) will affect the production location of the industry, and then affect the direction and region of industrial transfer; When other conditions are basically the same, areas with lower environmental access standards (environmental regulations) will become the main destinations for the transfer of polluting industries.
Therefore, this study focuses on the influence of production cost (factor endowment), environmental regulation and foreign direct investment on heavily polluted industrial agglomeration, taking them as the core explanatory variables of the model, and taking economic development level, market share, industrial structure and technological innovation as control variables. In order to verify whether the environmental Kuznets curve is established at the provincial level, the square term of economic development level is introduced to test.
Agglomeration mechanism
Production cost (factor endowment) factor. On the whole, it has the strongest influence on the agglomeration of heavily polluting industries among the core explanatory variables. Mining, smelting and processing industries of mineral resources such as coal, oil, metal and nonmetal account for a relatively large proportion in heavily polluted industries, and the resource-intensive orientation of such heavily polluted industries is obvious. Compensatory wages make the wage level of such heavily polluted industries higher, which may lead to a certain synchronization between high labor costs and heavily polluted industries. At the same time, although the preferred areas for heavily polluting industries have the advantages of intensive labor force and low production cost, heavily polluting enterprises will also comprehensively consider the economic development level, transportation infrastructure construction and supporting policies in the areas where they move. Only when the above conditions reach a certain level, the wage level will get more consideration, so the wage level of some moving areas does not have too much advantage in the alternative moving areas of heavily polluting industries.
Environmental regulatory factors. It is not significant when the individual effect is fixed, but it is positively related to industrial agglomeration when the time effect is fixed. The "pollution refuge" effect at the provincial scale is not significant on the long-term scale, which means it is difficult to support the "pollution refuge" hypothesis. With the increasing emphasis of local governments on ecological environmental protection and environmental protection, the differences of environmental policies among regions have gradually decreased, and the transfer strategy of heavily polluting industries seeking lower environmental regulations has gradually failed.
Factors of foreign direct investment. Its impact on the agglomeration of heavily polluting industries is not significant, which shows that the transfer of heavily polluting industries mainly occurs at the provincial level, and the scale of heavily polluting industries at the international level is small.
Economic development level, market share and industrial structure factors. It has a very significant effect on the agglomeration of heavily polluted industries. This is basically consistent with the traditional mainstream views of industrial location theory, industry and regional economy.
Technological innovation factors. It is only significant when the time is fixed. It shows that there is a positive correlation between long-term technology investment and R&D and heavy pollution industrial agglomeration, which is inseparable from potential industrial transformation and industrial upgrading. At the same time, it also reflects the shift of technology investment in heavily polluting industries, which may be closely related to the upgrading of mining technology, industrial chain and even environmental protection investment in resource-based areas.
Environmental effects of heavily polluting industrial agglomeration
The influence of heavy pollution industrial agglomeration on local environmental pollution, that is, whether heavy pollution industrial agglomeration causes significant environmental pollution in the moving area.
Core variable
This study focuses on the influence of two core variables, the agglomeration of heavily polluting industries and environmental regulation, on environmental pollution.
Heavy polluting industries have significantly increased the emission of environmental pollutants. There is a nonlinear relationship between heavily polluting industries and environmental pollution, in which the agglomeration of heavily polluting industries has an "inverted U" relationship with the total amount of industrial waste gas and the amount of industrial solid waste, and the pollutant emissions show a trend of rising first and then falling with the agglomeration of heavily polluting industries.
Environmental regulation has not yet played a role in reducing pollutant emissions at the provincial level. There is a significant positive correlation between environmental regulation and the total discharge of industrial wastewater, industrial waste gas and industrial solid waste. In the future, it is still necessary to continue to deepen the concept of environmental protection policy and ecological governance, and improve the intensity of environmental protection and environmental regulation.
Other factors
Technological innovation. It has played a role in reducing pollutant emissions. By adopting cleaner, more efficient and more sustainable emission reduction and pollution reduction technology, the total discharge of industrial wastewater and the total production of industrial solid waste in heavily polluted industries can be effectively reduced.
Foreign direct investment. It is only significant to reduce the output of industrial solid waste in heavily polluted industries. It shows that foreign-funded enterprises may bring more environmental protection concepts and advanced technologies to the industries that discharge solid waste.
The level of regional economic development. There is a significant positive correlation with pollutant emissions. With the increase of per capita gross domestic product (GDP), pollutant emissions will gradually increase, which is basically consistent with the theory of environmental economics.
Market share (specifically the total GDP). There is a negative correlation with pollutant discharge (except industrial wastewater discharge). This is because the market share is related to the economic structure, and the development level of service industry is higher and the proportion of tertiary industry is larger in areas with higher GDP, which is also confirmed by the correlation between the results and the coefficients of industrial structure variables.
Industrial structure. There is a significant positive correlation with pollutant emissions. Pollutant discharge is usually related to industrial activities. The higher the output value of the secondary industry, the more pollutants will be discharged, so the industrial structure variable (the output value of the secondary industry) is significantly positively correlated with pollutant discharge.
Main conclusions
This study systematically combs the agglomeration and spatial distribution of heavily polluted industries in China in the past 20 years, analyzes the influencing factors and agglomeration mechanism of heavily polluted industries through the panel data fixed effect model, and studies the environmental effects of heavily polluted industries agglomeration, and draws the following four main conclusions.
The agglomeration characteristics of heavily polluted industries are consistent with the overall trend of international and domestic industrial transfer, and there is an obvious diffusion trend from east to west and from coastal to inland. Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Guangdong are the areas with high concentration of heavily polluted industries in China in the past 20 years, while Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Henan and Sichuan are the potential areas for the future concentration of heavily polluted industries.
The results of fixed effect model show that factor endowment, environmental regulation, economic development level, market share and industrial structure are the key factors affecting the development of heavily polluted industries. Among them, the production cost (factor endowment) is positively related to the development of heavily polluted industries. It is difficult to find the relevant evidence to support the "pollution shelter" hypothesis on the provincial scale. However, the technological innovation that only has a significant impact on the development of heavily polluted industries in a long time scale may reveal the shift of potential technology investment, which promotes the industrial upgrading and transformation of heavily polluted industries in China.
The test of labor cost and regional robustness reveals the driving mechanism and regional heterogeneity of the development of heavily polluted industries in China. The nonlinear relationship test of production cost (factor endowment) shows that there is an "inverted U" relationship between labor cost and the development of heavily polluted industries in China. Influenced by industrial types and compensatory wages, the development of heavily polluting industries in China has increased the labor cost in the areas where they moved in, but the excessive labor cost has promoted the further transfer of heavily polluting industries. Regional heterogeneity reveals the gradient characteristics of heavy pollution industry transfer in China, that is, the eastern part of China is the main position to undertake international heavy pollution industry, and the international heavy pollution industry seeks areas with lower labor costs, which leads to the eastern part becoming a "pollution refuge" for international heavy pollution industry transfer. It is more obvious that the heavily polluting industries in the central region seek low labor costs and resource-rich areas. The "inverted U" relationship between the labor cost and the development of heavily polluting industries in the western region is remarkable. The heavily polluting industries in Northeast China are more affected by their own industrial base and international industrial transfer, and grow slowly.
The environmental effect of heavy pollution industry agglomeration is remarkable, which significantly increases the emissions of industrial wastewater, waste gas and solid waste, and increases the emissions of pollutants. Although there is an obvious nonlinear relationship between the agglomeration of heavily polluting industries and environmental pollution ("inverted U" relationship, that is, the emission of environmental pollutants and the agglomeration of heavily polluting industries rise first and then fall), the results of this study cannot support the conclusion that environmental regulation can reduce the emission of pollutants. More importantly, the environmental Kuznets curve on the provincial scale in China is not established, and many provinces have not reached the inflection point of environmental pollution at present.
Research enlightenment
From an empirical point of view, this study analyzes the influencing factors and environmental effects of heavy pollution industry agglomeration, and the enlightenment to China’s adjustment of heavy pollution industry layout and introduction of environmental regulation and protection policies is as follows.
Spatial concentration of economic activities is conducive to reducing environmental pollution emissions. In order to improve the spatial concentration of heavily polluting industries and reduce the pollution to the ecological environment, local governments should conform to the trend of the development of heavily polluting industries, reserve planned industrial cluster parks and support corresponding infrastructure, and centrally arrange heavily polluting industrial clusters.
When guiding and undertaking the development of heavily polluting industries, governments in different regions should formulate different policy orientations. ① Eastern region. We should pay attention to unified planning at regional scale, raise the threshold of environmental policy at the same time, strengthen the regional control of pollutant discharge from heavily polluting industries, reduce the "pollution refuge" effect, promote the orderly reduction of pollution discharge in the whole eastern region, and take the lead in building a model area of beautiful China. ② Central and western regions. We should give full play to our own characteristics and advantages, make full use of low-cost advantages, scientifically introduce relevant heavily polluting industries when our own resources and environment carrying capacity allow, build high-quality heavily polluting industrial clusters, guide the rational layout of heavily polluting industries, and promote the transformation and technological upgrading of heavily polluting industries after moving in; At the same time, improve the supervision and management mechanism of heavily polluting industries before, during and after the event as soon as possible, and avoid taking the old road of "pollution first and then treatment". ③ Northeast China. It is necessary to strengthen the transformation and upgrading of heavily polluting industries, enhance the competitiveness of industries, fully tap and give play to the advantages of existing industrial bases, and realize regional revitalization through industrial upgrading and transformation.
Pay attention to the ecological environment protection in ecologically fragile areas, do a good job in policy avoidance programs, and reduce the ecological environment pressure of the development of heavily polluting industries. The government should pay attention to the more serious environmental pollution problems arising from the transfer of heavily polluting industries to ecologically fragile areas such as Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia, and local governments need to adopt more forward-looking macro-control policies to deal with potential environmental pollution risks. In a word, all regions should adopt targeted industrial guidance and pollution response strategies according to local conditions, reduce the degree of environmental pollution while developing industries and revitalizing the economy as much as possible, and make joint efforts to build a beautiful China.



(author:Chen Hongyang, Yu Jianhui and Zhang Wenzhong, Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Analysis and Simulation of China Academy of Sciences, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, School of Resources and Environment, University;Contributed by Journal of China Academy of Sciences)