In 2022, analyze the "change" of global market trends.
Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, January 1st Special feature: 2022, Analysis of the "change" of the global market trend
Xinhua news agency reporter
Looking back on 2021, the world economy gradually recovered from the impact of the new epidemic. Under the background that developed economies generally maintained loose monetary policies and many countries continuously introduced economic stimulus plans, the market liquidity was abundant, investors’ risk appetite was enhanced, and the prices of major assets in the international market mostly rose but fluctuated obviously.
Looking forward to 2022, the epidemic situation in COVID-19 may still fluctuate repeatedly, and the prospect of world economic recovery is facing great uncertainty. The epidemic situation, inflation trend, fiscal and monetary policy trend and geopolitical situation are the key variables affecting the asset prices in the international market. With the increase of market variables, the risk increases. How to arrange assets to preserve and increase their value and test the wisdom of investors.
Will the dollar rise again?
In 2021, the expected warming of the US Federal Reserve’s tightening monetary policy, the rapid recovery of the US economy, and the repeated innovations in the stock market all worked together to push the US dollar exchange rate upward. On December 31st, the US dollar index, which measures the US dollar against six major currencies, closed at 95.5916 points, up 6.2% compared with the end of 2020.
At present, the "hawkish" stance of the Federal Reserve has become clearer, and the uncertainty faced by global economic growth has increased under repeated epidemics. Market research institutions believe that there is still room for the US dollar exchange rate to rise in 2022 under the resonance of many factors such as the weakening of the world economic recovery and the differentiation of monetary policies in major developed economies.
On December 7, 2021, people were shopping in a supermarket in new york, USA. (Xinhua News Agency reporter Wang Yingshe)
Wells Fargo Securities Co., Ltd. issued a report saying that in view of the fact that the pace of tightening monetary policy in the United States is expected to be faster than that in most other developed economies, the agency has raised its expectation of dollar appreciation in 2022 and 2023. The Global Research Department of Bank of America predicts that the US benchmark interest rate will reach 2.5% by the beginning of 2024, while the interest rates of low-risk currencies such as euro, Japanese yen and Swiss franc are still difficult to normalize, which will support the strengthening of the US dollar.
Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, said recently that the IMF is considering lowering its forecast for world economic growth in 2022 due to the global spread of the mutant Omicron strain in Covid-19. Analysts believe that the slowdown in world economic growth will reduce investment opportunities, weaken market risk appetite, and highlight the safe-haven currency attribute of the US dollar.
Experts pointed out that the further appreciation of the US dollar has a negative impact on global asset prices and the global economy, especially the recovery of emerging market economies.
Can the price of gold heat up
In 2021, under the background of repeated global epidemics and loose monetary policy, gold as an investment haven was not as popular as expected. On December 31st, the main contract of the New York Mercantile Exchange gold futures closed at $1,828.6 per ounce, down about 3.5% from the end of 2020.
For the future trend of gold prices, there are obvious differences in market views. Factors such as global monetary policy, inflation level, recovery trajectory and epidemic development will determine the trend of gold price, but these restrictive factors affect each other and have large variables, which may aggravate the fluctuation of gold price.
ANZ predicts that with the withdrawal of major economies from monetary easing and economic stimulus plans, the price of gold will lose some support in 2022, and the trend will be strong first and then weak, with an annual average price of around $1,725 per ounce.
On September 1, 2021, at Chow Tai Fook Store in Causeway Bay, Hong Kong, the clerk introduced the "Inheritance" series of gold ornaments to the guests. (Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Wu Xiaochu)
Ivy Hambro, an executive of BlackRock, an asset management giant, believes that inflation will run through 2022. If the trend exceeds expectations, the real interest rate after the interest rate hike will not increase significantly, and may even decrease, thus further highlighting the investment value of gold.
The World Gold Council predicts that the gold market will remain volatile in 2022 due to the combined effects of global monetary policy and inflation trend, and periodic fluctuations may occur frequently.
Which stock market is better?
Thanks to the recovery of the world economy, the improvement of corporate profits and abundant liquidity, most of the major global stock markets rose in 2021.
With the support of loose monetary policy and unprecedented fiscal stimulus measures, European and American stock markets performed relatively strongly in 2021, among which the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite Index in new york rose by 26.89%, 18.73% and 21.39% respectively. The Financial Times average price index of 100 stocks in London stock market rose by 14.3% for the whole year. The Nikkei stock index rose 4.9% for the whole year.
Under the influence of the Fed’s expectation of tightening monetary policy, some emerging market economies are facing the pressure of capital outflow, and the stock market is dragged down. In 2021, the bovis Pa Index in Sao Paulo, Brazil, fell by 11.93%, ending the upward trend for six consecutive years since 2015.
How will the global stock market evolve in 2022? Analysts believe that countries have different recovery paths, different policy spaces and different stock market trends. Tightening monetary environment and repeated epidemics are the main risks faced by global stock markets. Geopolitical factors such as mid-term elections in the US Congress and general elections in Brazil will also have an impact on the stock market trend.
Larry benedikt, the founder of the market research organization Speculator Company, predicts that the major stock indexes of the US stock market may decline to varying degrees in 2022.
On May 12th, 2021, a trader worked in new york Stock Exchange. (Xinhua News Agency, courtesy of NYSE)
The German Business Daily believes that the share prices of German listed companies were undervalued in 2021, and it is estimated that the DAX index of Frankfurt stock market will rise by about 12% in 2022. Ulrich Cartel, chief economist of Deka Bank, Germany, believes that if the epidemic control measures in Germany continue until the spring of 2022, it will have a great impact on the economy and the stock market may be drastically revised.
Ueno Gangzhi, a researcher at the Institute of Japanese Basic Studies, predicts that with the gradual recovery of Japan’s economy and the improvement of corporate performance, the Tokyo stock market will continue to rise in 2022, and the Nikkei stock index is expected to rise above 30,000 points by the end of the year.
Joelson Sampaio, an economist with the Vargas Foundation in Brazil, said that the Fed’s interest rate hike will make funds withdraw from emerging market countries, and the Brazilian stock market may fluctuate greatly in 2022 due to factors such as the Brazilian presidential election.
How high can oil prices go up?
Against the background of shortage caused by supply constraints and strong demand, the international crude oil price fluctuated upward in 2021. On December 31, the main contracts of the New York Mercantile Exchange light crude oil futures and London Brent crude oil futures closed at 75.21 and 77.78 US dollars respectively, rising by about 55% and 50% respectively.
Looking forward to 2022, although the market is bullish, the oil price trend still faces high uncertainty.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) recently released a report, maintaining the expectation that the world’s average daily oil demand will increase by 4.2 million barrels in 2022, and holding that Omicron’s influence on oil demand will be moderate and short-lived.
On November 17, 2021, people lined up at a gas station in Mississauga, Ontario, Canada. (Xinhua News Agency, photo by Zou Wei)
Goldman Sachs Group predicts that with the rising demand in aviation, transportation and infrastructure, oil demand will reach a new high in 2022 and 2023. Damien Courvalin, head of energy research at Goldman Sachs, believes that Omicron has limited impact on the economy, and the Brent crude oil futures price will remain at around $85 per barrel in 2022 and 2023. If the supply cannot keep up with the demand growth, the oil price may exceed $100 per barrel.
The US Energy Information Administration predicts that the supply growth of major oil-producing countries will exceed the global oil consumption growth in 2022, and the annual average price of Brent crude oil futures will be around $70 per barrel due to the new mutation Covid-19 disturbing the market. (Note holder: Ouyang Wei; Participating reporters: Xu Chao, Du Jing, Fan Yu, Liu Yanan, Pan Lijun, Liu Chunyan, Shen Zhonghao, Luo Jing, Yang Hairuo, Yan Jing, Geng Pengyu, Kang Yi, Xu Jing)