The first part is a summary of preface

From August to September, the market of oils and fats showed strong shock, weak trend and huge fluctuation, and the overall trend was relatively strong, among which palm oil and vegetable oil kept hitting new highs. If the rising prices of oils and fats in the first half of the year are mainly due to the strong demand for oils and fats outside the market, the tight domestic supply and demand and the strong macro-funds, then the strong price shock in July-September is mainly due to the domestic supply speculation and the boost of macro-funds. The impact of macro-game on the oil market reflects the financial and speculative properties of oil varieties, which really enlarges the marginal impact on the recent oil market, which is quite different from other varieties of agricultural products (000061, Guba) such as protein and many food price fluctuations.

After entering August, some industrial products were in short supply due to power and production restrictions, and prices continued to rise. Most oil plants in port areas were also affected by this factor, and the basis of oil and fat generally rose sharply, and the expectation of supply shortage continued to enlarge. On the whole, the global vegetable oil balance in 2001-22 was less tense than that in 2000-21, but it was still tight. In addition, the shortage of beans in oil plants at the beginning of the fourth quarter and the potential weak consumption of soybean meal will also keep the soybean oil basis high in the fourth quarter. Domestic vegetable oil stocks began to decline slowly, and vegetable oil is expected to become the most powerful variety after the fourth quarter after adding rapeseed to confirm a sharp reduction in production.

Part II Palm Oil

(1) International market

(1) The output of horse palm in September was less than expected again, or it went to the warehouse slightly.

In August, Malay exceeded expectations by accumulating 380,000 tons to 1.87 million tons, the highest level of inventory since June 20. However, this market has not been traded, and the negative Malay data has been offset by Indonesia’s high export tax. According to the multi-caliber data such as mpoa and uob in September, the output of Malay crude palm oil in September is likely to be flat or even slightly lower than that in August. At present, it is the end of the seasonal peak season for increasing production, and the superimposed labor problems limit the output growth rate, so the output in September is still low. Before the Mid-Autumn Festival in September, the market will introduce 32,000 workers to alleviate the picking efficiency, which will cause the disk to plummet. However, the expectation of increasing the introduction of workers is a long-term impact rather than a short-term impact. The introduction of workers may gradually restore Malay production after 2022, but it may be difficult to solve the current dilemma of increasing production.

On the export side, Indonesia lowered the special export tax from July to August, which made Malaysia lose its competitive advantage. As a result, Malaysia’s exports fell sharply in August, but after the pressure of Indonesia’s sales eased, the export tax was raised again, and Indonesia was reluctant to sell. The export market of Malaysia turned around again in September. At present, it is estimated that the export volume of Malay in September will reach more than 1.5 million tons. Due to the slow growth of output and the great increase in exports, the inventory of Malay in September may decrease slightly compared with that in August, so the trend of horse brown is strong again, accompanied by a strong resonance breakthrough.

After October, Malaysia will gradually enter the production reduction season, and the output will gradually peak and decline. On the demand side, India’s recent procurement has slowed down. In September, India once again lowered import taxes to curb its high domestic prices, but then raised the tax base, which made palm oil import profits worse than soybean oil import profits. As of the end of August, the port inventory of palm oil in India is still low, and there is still some room for replenishment in the short term. It is expected that the horse palm may fluctuate strongly in the future, and even if it is pushed back, the space for the plunge will not be too deep.

Figure 1: Monthly output of Malay palm oil (unit: 1,000 tons)

Source: galaxy futures Agricultural Products Division, MPOB.

Figure 2: Monthly export volume of Malay palm oil (unit: 1,000 tons)

Source: galaxy futures Agricultural Products Division, MPOB.

Figure 3: Monthly inventory of Malay palm oil (unit: 1,000 tons)

Source: galaxy futures Agricultural Products Division, MPOB.

Figure 4: India vegetable oil import tax (unit:%)

Source: galaxy futures Agricultural Products Division, SEA.

(2) Indonesia’s price after tax increase is obvious, and the current pressure is not yet available.

Due to the large accumulation of palm oil stocks in Indonesia in June, in July, the Indonesian government announced that it would reduce the export levy, and the total export tax was 291 US dollars/ton. After August, Indonesia continued to reduce the export tax, so that the total export tax continued to drop from the highest of $348/ton in June to $268/ton. Due to the sharp reduction of export tax, Indonesia’s export volume increased greatly from July to August, and Indonesia’s willingness to sell goods was strong. We subjectively estimate that the accumulation of palm oil stocks in Indonesia from July to August is limited.

After entering September, with the easing of inventory pressure, the government once again announced that it would raise the total export tax to US$ 341/ton, returning to the high level in January-June 2021. Therefore, Indonesia showed a strong price-holding sentiment, and the price difference with Malaysia also widened significantly. Looking at the general direction, Indonesia’s inventory pressure may not be gradually reflected until the fourth quarter, and it is necessary to pay attention to the purchasing rhythm of India and China.

Figure 5: Monthly inventory of palm oil in Indonesia (unit: 1,000 tons)

Source: galaxy futures Agricultural Products Division, GAPKI.

Figure 6: Changes in export tax and levy of Indonesian crude palm oil (unit: USD/ton)

Source: galaxy futures Agricultural Products Division, GAPKI.

(2) Domestic market: the import profit continues to deteriorate, and the long-term procurement gap is significant.

Since July, the trend of domestic disk has been stronger than that of external disk, which is closely related to tight domestic supply, continuous loss-making import profits and persistent port inventory. In the third quarter, the domestic average monthly import of 24-degree palm oil was 400,000 tons, which was basically the same as that of the same period last year. In the third quarter, the monthly average demand was 380,000 tons, which was lower than the same period of last year and slightly lower than the situation in the second quarter, but the overall situation was relatively stable, affected by the need for food factories to purchase and the demand for raw wood in South China. By the end of September, the inventory of low brown ports continued to be less than 400,000 tons. This month, the profit of import arbitrage continued to deteriorate due to the impact of Indonesia’s considerable price. In November, the upside-down range of the shipping schedule was the highest profit in the same period in history, and it fell to -800 yuan/ton, which was so deep that it could only be compensated by the basis difference. By the end of September, the 24-degree spot basis in South China rose from 01+850 at the end of August to 01+1150, reflecting the tight supply expectation under the deep import loss.

According to the balance sheet, according to the current procurement progress, the gap is still obvious after October. Even if the demand weakens seasonally after October, it is difficult to accumulate domestic port inventory and continue to maintain a low level of 300,000-400,000 tons. Unilaterally, in addition to the tight domestic supply accompanied by a strong cash structure, the game funds also have a strong driving force. The labor problem in the producing area and the problem that the import profit is difficult to repair are all powerful short-term pushers of bulls. The overall trend of superimposed macro commodities is strong, and the recent palm oil holdings have increased significantly and speculation has increased.

Figure 7: Profit of palm oil import at 24 degrees (unit: RMB/ton)

Figure 8: Monthly import volume of domestic low brown rice (unit: ton)

Figure 9: Monthly domestic low-brown cargo volume (unit: ton)

Figure 10: Domestic 24-degree palm oil inventory (unit: ton)

Figure 11: P01 Positions (unit: hands)

Figure 12: South China spot basis of 24 degrees (unit: yuan/ton)

Source: galaxy futures Agricultural Products Division, Customs Data, wind.

The third part of soybean oil

(1) International market

(1) The short-term bearish trading of US soybean oil is coming to an end.

Since the beginning of the year, the trend of US soybean oil disk has been different from that of horse palm oil and domestic oil disk, and the consumption growth of US soybean oil and firewood is expected to be strong, mainly trading its own independent fundamentals. Throughout the third quarter, the trend of soybean oil in the United States was under pressure, and high prices suppressed demand. Among them, the total output of biodiesel increased less than expected due to the loss of production profit, the proportion of superimposed soybean oil decreased, and the consumption of raw wood from soybean oil decreased to less than 300 thousand tons per month. Food consumption in July-August is not as good as last year’s level, so the total domestic consumption of the two countries has dropped for three consecutive months since June. As a result, the US soybean oil inventory showed anti-seasonal growth in July and August, the ratio of stock to sales rebounded from the low level, and the inland basis of US soybean oil also dropped significantly.

In 2021, US soybean oil may be under pressure in the general direction due to less than expected demand. In the short term, the price/performance ratio of soybean oil may be highlighted again after a large price correction, and the decline is limited. By mid-September, after the adjustment of soybean oil price, the processing profit of soybean oil-based firewood increased from the highest loss of $1.2/gallon at the beginning of August to a loss of $0.7/gallon. Counting various subsidies and the price of RIN, the overall firewood production and blending profit improved rapidly, so the price of soybean oil in the United States may be supported at around 52 cents. In the medium and long term, after 22 years, with the gradual expansion of RD production capacity, the consumption of soybean oil and firewood in the United States is expected to increase by 1 million tons in the next year, and the long-term increase in soybean oil consumption will also stimulate the crushing of American beans in reverse. The potential increase of RD yield is also the basis of long cattle.

Figure 13: Profits from biodiesel processing in the United States (unit: USD/gallon)

Figure 14: D4-rins (unit: USD/gallon)

Figure 15: Monthly domestic consumption of US soybean oil (unit: ton)

Figure 16: Monthly Stock-to-Sale Ratio of US Soybean Oil (unit:%)

Source: galaxy futures Agricultural Products Division, USDA, Bloomberg.

(2) The discount in South America strengthened, and domestic consumption in Argentina recovered.

Last year, Argentina’s domestic consumption dropped significantly due to the double suppression of its own consumption of raw wood and the export of raw wood. At present, Argentina’s domestic consumption is still depressed after the firewood plan is lowered to B5, but the EU’s return to Argentina to purchase SME has restored the consumption of soybean oil firewood. In addition, the quantity of soybean oil purchased by India has increased recently, and the superposition of the two factors has strengthened the discount of soybean oil in South America. Due to the historical low water level of Parana River, the export transportation of Argentine oil meal was blocked, and the soybean crushing capacity in Argentina began to decline since June. It is expected that the average monthly crushing capacity will continue to drop to 3.5 million tons from August to September. With tight supply and good demand, Argentine soybean oil stocks continued to decline.

Compared with Argentina’s crushing, Brazil’s soybean crushing continued to maintain a high level year-on-year, Brazil’s oil meal exports were smooth, and Brazil’s raw wood production and consumption were relatively stable, which stimulated the steady growth of Brazil’s crushing volume. In the third quarter, Brazil consumed about 380,000 tons of soybean oil firewood every month. In the third quarter, Brazil implemented the B12 firewood plan, but the compulsory blending ratio will be lowered to B10 again in October-December. At that time, the consumption of soybean oil firewood may fall below 350,000 tons per month, and the soybean oil inventory in Brazil may increase slightly in the future.

Fig. 17: Monthly soybean crush in Argentina (unit: 1,000 tons)

Source: Agricultural Products Division of galaxy futures and Argentine Ministry of Agriculture.

Figure 18: Monthly consumption of soybean oil in Argentina (unit: 1,000 tons)

Source: Agricultural Products Division of galaxy futures and Argentine Ministry of Agriculture.

Fig. 19: Monthly Crushed Amount of Soybean in Brazil (unit: thousand tons)

Source: Agricultural Products Division of galaxy futures and Argentine Ministry of Agriculture.

Figure 20: Argentine soybean oil inventory (unit: ton)

Source: Agricultural Products Division of galaxy futures and Argentine Ministry of Agriculture.

(2) Domestic market: there is a large-scale shortage of beans in the country-power cuts and shutdowns, and soybean oil basis will remain strong for a long time in the future.

Looking back at the supply and demand of soybean oil in August, the crushing capacity of oil plants recovered to more than 1.9 million tons per week, and the supply of soybean oil was sufficient, but the apparent consumption of soybean oil increased significantly beyond market expectations, reaching more than 1.8 million tons, only lower than the level at the time of purchasing and storage in the same period last year. At present, it is considered that the high demand for watches is caused by the low terminal inventory from June to July and the continuous replenishment of stocks in the near future. In addition, feed oil has also contributed to the growth. After entering September, the focus of market transactions shifted to the expectation of soybean shortage in oil plants from September to October. Downstream enterprises were generally worried about the tight supply of soybeans and soybean oil, so they were more willing to replenish stocks. After mid-September, the phenomenon of power restriction and production restriction spread from industrial enterprises to oil plants, and the supply tension continued to increase. From late September to mid-October, power restriction in parts of East China, South China and North China led to a decline in operating rate, which can be said to add fuel to the fire against the background of soybean shortage. By the end of the month, the basis of one bean in East China and South China both rose above 01+900, and the basis of one bean in Tianjin and Rizhao also rose above 01+800, reflecting the expected tightening of supply. By the end of the month, the national stock of soybean oil was stable at a low level of 800,000 tons, the lowest level in the same period in history.

Assuming that the film impact weakens in late October, it will be difficult for the oil plant to return to a higher level under the expectation of bean shortage and weak demand for soybean meal. The fourth quarter is the traditional peak season for oil consumption, so soybean oil inventories may continue to decline slightly in the fourth quarter. In the medium and long term, even without the influence of limited electricity, the long-term fundamentals of soybean oil are optimistic, and the basis difference and monthly difference of soybean oil will also run strongly.

Figure 21: Domestic Soybean Crushing Quantity (unit: ton)

Source: galaxy futures Agricultural Products Division, My Agricultural Products.

Figure 22: Domestic soybean oil Zhou Du surface demand (unit: ton)

Source: galaxy futures Agricultural Products Division, My Agricultural Products.

Figure 23: Basis difference of one bean in Guangdong (unit: yuan/ton)

Source: galaxy futures Agricultural Products Division, My Agricultural Products.

Figure 24: Domestic soybean oil inventory (unit: 10,000 tons)

Source: galaxy futures Agricultural Products Division, My Agricultural Products.

Part IV Rapeseed Oil & Small Variety Oil

(1) International market: The output of rapeseed is lowered to 13 million tons, and the global oil balance sheet is still tight in 2012.

Statistics Canada once again lowered the forecast of rapeseed production in 21-22 to 13.2 million tons from more than 16 million tons predicted last month in its September report. Affected by extreme high temperature and drought, it is estimated that the yield of rapeseed will drop by more than 30% to 1.5 tons/hectare this year, and the output of rapeseed will drop by 5.8 million tons compared with last year. Combined with the decline of global rapeseed carry-over inventory, the total global rapeseed supply will drop by 6.5 million tons this year, which is equivalent to a drop of more than 2.5 million tons of global rapeseed oil supply. Most of the reduction of rapeseed will be reflected by the decline of international rapeseed trade, and some will be reflected by the decline of international vegetable oil trade. Subjectively, it is predicted that the rapeseed import in the EU will drop by 1.5 million tons to 4.8 million tons this year, the rapeseed import in China will drop by 800-1 million tons to 2 million tons, and the rapeseed import in the United Arab Emirates will also drop significantly.

The decline of international vegetable oil supply will be compensated by increasing the production of sunflower oil. Although Russia’s sunflower seed yield is slightly less than expected, due to the expansion of the total planting area of sunflower seeds in the Black Sea region, the international sunflower seed output has increased by more than 6.5 million tons compared with last year’s production reduction level, and the corresponding international sunflower oil output and export volume will also increase significantly. The market traded sunflower oil in advance to increase production. Since June, the international sunflower oil price has weakened significantly, but it has gradually increased compared with the recent bottom of the international vegetable oil price.

Based on the global demand for oil and the supply of soybean palm oil, it is estimated that the global supply and demand of vegetable oil will be less tense in 21-22 than in 20-21, but the ratio of stock to warehouse sales is still at a low level, which may mean that the international oil price is still difficult to weaken significantly this year.

Figure 25: International rapeseed production (unit: thousand tons)

Figure 26: International sunflower seed production (unit: thousand tons)

Figure 27: Global Vegetable Oil Supply and Demand Variables (unit: 10,000 tons)

Figure 28: International sunflower price difference (unit: USD/ton)

Source: galaxy futures Agricultural Products Division, Statistics Canada, USDA.

(2) Domestic market: the basis of vegetable oil has strengthened, and the supply shortage in the fourth quarter will gradually be reflected.

From July to August, the domestic demand for vegetable oil continued to be weak, and the price difference between vegetable oil and vegetable oil of other small varieties, such as corn oil, continued to shrink, and vegetable oil lost its cost performance. In addition, in the early stage, the inventory of inland vegetable oil in Sichuan and Chongqing was high, and the terminal enterprises mainly consumed and held the inventory, which reduced the apparent consumption of vegetable oil to a low of 200,000 tons in July and August. In the third quarter, the overall supply of rapeseed and vegetable oil was abundant, especially vegetable oil. In July and August, the average monthly import of domestic vegetable oil reached nearly 150,000 tons, which was significantly lower than that of 200,000 tons in the second quarter, but still higher than the same period of last year. The weak supply and demand in July and August also greatly weakened the basis of vegetable oil to the spot discount state. In 2021, the cumulative domestic import of vegetable oil is expected to reach 2.3 million tons, a big increase of 400,000 tons compared with last year. The weak supply and demand in the third quarter kept the vegetable oil inventory above 400,000 tons by the end of September, and the process of going to the warehouse was still slow in the short term.

After entering September, the market began to trade the expectation of "out of stock" in the fourth quarter in advance, and the mood of low-cost replenishment of terminal enterprises improved, which made the vegetable oil table need to rise to about 250,000 tons in September. In September, the forecast of rapeseed production was lowered again. The global rapeseed supply was tight in winning numbers, and the profit of domestic imported rapeseed maintained a deep loss, and there was still a big procurement gap in the long term. According to the forecast of the balance sheet, it is expected that the domestic vegetable oil inventory will drop significantly after November, and vegetable oil will enter a state of shortage after January next year. At present, the fund heat of vegetable oil is high, and the consistency of many views is strong, and the position has also risen to a higher level in the same period of last year. Generally speaking, vegetable oil may be the most resistant variety in the future, and the shortage of long-term spot will also support the monthly difference to maintain a positive set of ideas.

Figure 29: Domestic vegetable oil imports (unit: tons)

Source: galaxy futures Agricultural Products Division, My Agricultural Products.

Figure 30: Monthly consumption of domestic vegetable oil (unit: 10,000 tons)

Source: galaxy futures Agricultural Products Division, My Agricultural Products.

Figure 31: Domestic vegetable oil inventory (unit: 10,000 tons)

Source: galaxy futures Agricultural Products Division, My Agricultural Products.

Figure 32: Spot basis of Grade IV vegetable oil in East China (unit: RMB/ton)

Source: galaxy futures Agricultural Products Division, My Agricultural Products.

The fifth part of the market outlook

① spot end of the industry: the soybean oil supply end is tight due to the shortage of beans and the film restriction. Even after the fourth quarter, even if the power restriction factor is lifted, the supply growth will slow down due to the shortage of beans, and the domestic soybean oil basis will continue to be optimistic, and the monthly difference will be stronger. Domestic palm oil imports are seriously upside down, the origin is quite expensive, and there is also a procurement gap in the domestic long-term. It is urgent to give better import profits from the origin, and domestic stocks will remain low in the medium and long term. At present, the inventory of vegetable oil is high, and the demand is weak. However, after October, with the decline of arrival in Hong Kong and the overlapping procurement gap, the inventory will gradually decline, and the vegetable oil will easily rise after January.

② Data end of external disk: Malay output was less than expected in September, and the superimposed export was better, so it went to the warehouse in September against the season. In the fourth quarter, Malay will be slow and slow, or it will be difficult to form a significant negative. Indonesia’s market is tight, there is no inventory pressure, and we are concerned about the future procurement rhythm in India. Chicago’s short-lived bear has a long cow, and its recent consumption is less than expected, but it may be basically realized in the short term, and the space for a big drop is limited.

③ Game & Capital & Macro: At present, the three major oils and fats all have the problem of tight supply, which is difficult to alleviate in the short term, while the demand is stable at a high level, and there is no collapse of demand at a high price for the time being. In terms of funds, at present, the main forces of the three major oils are concentrated, and the bullish positions are obvious, paying attention to the disk callback caused by the main profit-making departure before the National Day. Macroscopically, under the goal of double carbon, the supply of some varieties is tight, and the goods are still in a bullish atmosphere.

Risk factors: Malay output; Buying goods in India; Start-up of domestic oil plants; Brazil planting weather, etc.

Part VI Trading Strategy

Unilateral strategy: the domestic supply of oil is tight and the inventory is low, which is difficult to alleviate in the short term. The macro-level of superposition is strong, and the general direction is strong. Pay attention to the support of p01 at 8000, y01 at 8800 and vegetable oil at 10500. However, near the holiday, the main force is too concentrated, so we should be alert to the potential callback caused by centralized liquidation before the holiday.

Arbitrage strategy: continue to hold the monthly difference between vegetable oil and soybean oil.

Option strategy: continue to pay attention to put options and seagull spread options. (The above views are for reference only, not as a basis for entering the market)

Galaxy futures Liu bowen

　　According to the Palestinian News Agency, in the early morning of the 12th local time, the Israeli army launched an all-round air, sea and land attack on Rafah, a city in the south of the Gaza Strip, and the death toll has now exceeded 100.

　　Prior to this, Israel had announced its plan of military strike against Rafah, which was collectively condemned by many countries in the Middle East.

　　In sharp contrast to the condemnation, almost at the same time, the US Senate is pushing through a bill, and one of the contents of the bill is to provide $14.1 billion in military assistance to Israel.

　　When the Middle East countries called for controlling the escalation of the situation, the Americans added fuel to the fire.

　　In addition to continuing to provide military assistance to Israel, the United States has recently carried out retaliatory air strikes against the Middle East, bombing Iraq and Syria one after another, making the situation in the Middle East even more turbulent.

　　Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister came out and said that Iraq is not a stage for liquidation between hostile countries.

　　The United States retaliates and other countries suffer. After the air raid, Tan Zhu also noticed that many people had similar puzzles:

　　Why did the United States bomb Syria and Iraq?

　　In my impression, the United States has been bombing these countries continuously. Why has the bombing not stopped after more than 10 years?

　　Air strikes have become a perspective to observe American actions in the Middle East. Through air strikes, we can also see the situation in the Middle East and the current situation of the United States in the Middle East.situation.

　　On January 28th, local time, Tower 22, a small American logistics base in the northeast of Jordan, was attacked by drones.

　　This is not the first time that the US military base in the Middle East has been attacked recently. In fact, after this round of escalation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the US military bases in Iraq and Syria have suffered.More than 160 timesAttack.

　　But this attack killed three American soldiers.

　　This is no small matter for the United States. According to the data of the U.S. Department of Defense, since 2022, no American soldiers have been killed in hostilities. The last time an American soldier was killed overseas, it was in August 2021, when 13 American soldiers were killed in an attack.

　　The seriousness of the matter is not limited to these.

　　Previously, the bases attacked by the US military were basically in an open or semi-open state, and the base attacked this time was located in Jordan. According to foreign media, this is a "secret base".

　　Moreover, according to the preliminary investigation report of the United States, when the drone attacked the base, an American drone was about to return to the base, so the people at the base thought it was their own drone and took no action at all.

　　This means that the other party has masteredRelevant informationIn order to attack the US military at this time node.

　　This surprised and angered the United States. After the attack, Biden met with Haynes, the director of national intelligence.

　　On January 31, the US intelligence agency said that the attack was launched by armed groups supported by Iran, so why bomb Syria and Iraq?

　　By clarifying the relationship here, we can understand the current situation.

　　In 2003, the United States launched the Iraq war. In order to quickly attack the Iraqi government, the United States and its allies launched.More than 20,000 piecesBombs, which not only destroyed Iraq’s infrastructure, but also brought great casualties to Iraqi civilians.

　　In this context, a number of armed groups were established, including the "Hezbollah Brigade" which was identified by the US military as participating in the base attack in Jordan.

　　"Hezbollah Brigade" believes that the tension in the Middle East countries is caused by the United States and Western countries, and hopes to get rid of the control of the United States and Western countries in the Middle East.

　　Historically, the statement of "Hezbollah Brigade" makes sense.

　　When we open the map, we can see that the borders of some Middle Eastern countries are straight, just like straight lines.

　　Before the end of World War I, western colonialists began to think about how to carve up the Middle East. They took out their pens and drew lines on the map. These lines will be the borders of many countries in the future. This way, which completely ignores the reality, also makes the Middle East countries add something like territory on the basis of the original religious contradictions.Realistic conflict of interest.

　　Therefore, for western countries, forces such as Hezbollah Brigade have always held a hostile attitude.

　　After the outbreak of the Syrian civil war, they helped the Syrian government forces to fight against the rebels.

　　Why is it against anti-government forces? From a data, we can see the clue:

　　According to the disclosure, the United States spent billions of dollars to cultivate and support in Syria.More than 80Anti-government forces.

　　In 2014, the United States put this support on the bright side — — At that time, the extremist organization "Islamic State" was rampant in Iraq, Syria and other countries. The United States announced that it would provide equipment and training support to Syrian rebels on the grounds of cracking down on terrorist organizations.

　　Anti-terrorism is the proper meaning, but the United States only provides support to anti-government armed forces, and its intention is self-evident.

　　At that time, the "Hezbollah Brigade" also participated in the action against the "Islamic State".

　　In 2021, during the meeting with the Iraqi Prime Minister, US President Biden promised that by the end of 2021, there would be no US troops undertaking combat missions in Iraq.

　　But the US military just played a "word game" — — Turned "combat troops" into "military advisers."

　　At present, the US military still has2,500Military personnel are deployed at Assad Air Force Base, Ballard Air Force Base and Erbil Air Force Base respectively. Fighters, drones and special forces from these bases can still operate in Iraq and carry out military strike missions.

　　As a result, these bases have also become the key targets of armed groups. In addition to these three bases, there is also the Tanf base in Syria.

　　The US military built this base in the name of "anti-terrorism". As can be seen from the picture, it cut off a highway, which is a highway connecting Damascus, Syria and Baghdad, Iraq, so that the armed forces going back and forth between the two countries can only be transferred through the desert. The oil stolen by the US military from Syria was also transported to Iraq from this base.

||| American troops stealing oil in Syria

　　In 2020, after the United States assassinated Soleimani, a senior Iranian general, the Hezbollah Brigade and other armed groups began to unite. Then why are these armed groups willing to unite after the assassination in Soleimani?

　　Niu Xinchun, who has studied the Middle East for a long time, summed up the demands of all parties in the Middle East. He said that at present, the "resistance front" headed by Iran and the "western center" headed by the United States belong to the Middle East.The largest and most fundamentalA pair of contradictions.

　　The new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict has intensified this contradiction.

　　With the intervention of the United States, the humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza has been delayed.

　　The situation of the people in Gaza is not optimistic. Israel has built a cross in the Gaza area65 kilometers, high6 metersThe fence, to lay siege to Hamas. Anyone who tries to cross the fence will be shot.

　　The whole Gaza area is a "dilemma",only a little United Nations humanitarian aid can be transported to Gaza through the border zone.

　　According to statistics, 80% of the population in Gaza depend on international aid.

　　After the escalation of this round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the continuous exchange of fire hindered the rescue operation. According to United Nations estimates, more than 2 million people in Gaza are short of basic materials, and the situation is very serious.

　　It’s not just Gaza that is in crisis. The Palestinian-Israeli conflict has been delayed, assassinations and explosions have occurred one after another, and the regional situation is even at risk of getting out of control. Moreover, the deterioration of the overall security situation in the Middle East has also provided extremist forces with opportunities for activities — — The "Islamic State" took the opportunity to create many explosions.

　　Seeing that the Middle East is in danger of being dragged into a large-scale conflict again, armed groups in the Middle East are beginning to realize that they need to solve the problem — — The obvious partiality of the United States towards Israel.

　　The first to act is the Houthi armed forces. They began to attack American ships in the waters of the Red Sea, and claimed that they would stop such attacks only if Israeli military strikes against the Gaza were stopped.

　　Non-state armed groups in other parts of the Middle East have also joined this round of anti-American actions. This is what we saw at the beginning. After the beginning of this round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the US military base was attacked more than 160 times.

　　On February 7, the United States suddenly assassinated the senior commander of the Hezbollah Brigade, which also intensified the situation.

　　At present, the United States has long reserved in Iraq.2,500Garrison, stationed in Syria1000About American soldiers, armed personnel stationed in Jordan in various names about3000 peopleThere are also sporadic US military personnel in other countries in the Middle East. As long as the United States still does not support the Palestinian-Israeli ceasefire, these American bases may become targets of attack.

　　In the past few decades, the United States has waged many wars in the Middle East in the name of "anti-terrorism" and "democracy and freedom".

　　But what the United States has brought to these countries is turmoil and disaster.

　　To this day, the United States is still reluctant to leave these countries. According to statistics, the US military is in the Middle East, at least.More than 30Military base.

　　This also means that American military forces can complete any military action that the United States wants to carry out in these countries — — Air strikes, assassinations and so on.

　　There is a military base in Nevada, USA — — Kreiger Air Force Base. American soldiers in this base, like "playing games", control drones hovering over Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan and other countries thousands of miles away to carry out bombing and other tasks.

　　Americans press the launch button in a warm room, but thousands of miles away, it is a scene of countless lives and starvation, which is a contemporary human tragedy.

　　And the United States is ignoring such a tragedy. For a long time, the United States has used air strikes and bombings to suppress the resistance and dissatisfaction of the armed forces in the Middle East. In this round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the performance of the United States in the face of Houthi armed intrusion made those armed forces in the Middle East who had been bombed by the US military and displaced by the Americans see the possibility of fighting back.

　　When the anti-American sentiment in the Middle East was ignited, the situation really changed for the United States.

　　Xinhua News Agency, Tokyo, July 23rd Japan’s nuclear regulatory agency, the Atomic Energy Regulatory Commission, held a meeting on the 22nd, officially approving the plan of Tokyo Electric Power Company (hereinafter referred to as TEPCO) to discharge nuclear polluted water into the sea at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. According to this plan, TEPCO will start to discharge nuclear polluted water next spring if the local government agrees again.

　　Analysts pointed out that in April last year, the Japanese government officially decided to discharge nuclear polluted water into the Pacific Ocean despite strong opposition at home and abroad. Over the past year or so, despite the rising opposition at home and abroad, the Japanese side turned a deaf ear and pushed forward the discharge of nuclear polluted water into the sea, which is extremely irresponsible and will cause serious harm to the global marine environment.

　　This is the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in Japan, which was shot on April 13th, 2021. (Xinhua News Agency/Kyodo News Agency)

　　Push hard

　　In April this year, Japan Atomic Energy Regulatory Commission ignored domestic and international objections and doubts, and "generally agreed" to TEPCO’s emission plan, forming a draft "review book". After confirming the draft of the "review book" in May, the Committee said that the draft was "no problem" and entered the public consultation session.

　　According to reports, 670 of the more than 1,200 opinions collected publicly are technical opinions, including concerns about the determination of the concentration of nuclear contaminated water and the earthquake resistance of equipment. Despite this, after discussing the opinions collected on the 22nd, the Atomic Energy Regulatory Commission said that TEPCO’s response was "appropriate" and approved its plan to discharge nuclear polluted water into the sea.

　　After the Fukushima nuclear accident in March, 2011, a large amount of nuclear polluted water was produced to continuously cool the nuclear reactor whose core melted. TEPCO has prepared about 1,000 water storage tanks for storing nuclear contaminated water at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. With the available capacity of water storage tanks getting less and less, the Japanese government held a cabinet meeting in April last year and formally decided to filter and dilute these nuclear polluted water and discharge it into the sea.

This is the nuclear sewage storage tank of Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, Japan, which was photographed on February 13, 2021. (Xinhua News Agency/Kyodo News Agency)

　　Analysts pointed out that although the emission plan was nominally formulated by TEPCO, in fact, it could not be completed without the participation and support of the Japanese government.

　　According to Japanese media reports, in addition to promoting the approval of emission plans, Japan is also stepping up the construction of sea-discharge pipelines. At the end of April this year, TEPCO started the construction of the outlet of the submarine tunnel for discharging nuclear polluted water, with the goal of completing related projects in April 2023.

　　make irresponsible remarks

　　At present, all parties are generally concerned about the impact of Japan’s discharge of nuclear polluted water on the marine environment and people’s health in countries along the Pacific Ocean. At the same time, questions are raised about the legitimacy of the nuclear polluted water discharge scheme, the reliability of Japanese data, the effectiveness of purification devices and the controllability of environmental impact. Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, pointed out in an interview last year that Japanese nuclear waste water discharged into the Pacific Ocean should not cause environmental damage.

　　The International Atomic Energy Agency set up a technical working group to visit and evaluate Japan twice. So far, it has not reached a conclusive opinion on Japan’s sea discharge plan, and at the same time, it has put forward many clarification requirements and improvement opinions. China and Russia submitted a joint technical questionnaire to the Japanese side, and they still haven’t received feedback from the Japanese side. Not long ago, the leaders’ meeting and foreign ministers’ meeting of the Pacific Island Forum also expressed serious concern about related issues.

　　In this regard, the Japanese side not only deliberately avoided these questions, but also made irresponsible remarks and tried to cover up the harm. The Japanese side claimed that before the Fukushima nuclear polluted water was discharged into the sea, it had to be filtered by "Multi-nuclide Removal Equipment" (ALPS) to remove more than 60 radioactive substances. Tritium, which is difficult to be removed by the equipment, will be diluted to a concentration far lower than the Japanese national standard and discharged into the sea. The Japanese side also confuses the concept and confuses nuclear polluted water with waste water, saying that waste water discharged from nuclear power plants all over the world contains tritium, and it is safe to dilute it and discharge it into the sea.

　　In fact, Fukushima nuclear contaminated water is not tritium-containing wastewater discharged during the normal operation of nuclear power plants, and the radioactive substances contained in it are extremely complex, so it is doubtful whether it can be effectively removed. Given that the Japanese government and TEPCO have many dishonest records in dealing with the Fukushima nuclear accident, their statements are unconvincing.

　　Japanese media have found out that there are many radioactive substances in Fukushima nuclear polluted water beyond the standard except tritium. TEPCO also admitted that more than 70% of the nuclear polluted water treated by ALPS does not meet the discharge standards and needs to be filtered again.

　　strongly oppose

　　There have been a lot of doubts and objections in Japan and the international community about Japan’s plan to discharge nuclear polluted water into the sea. The statement made by the Japan Atomic Energy Regulatory Commission on the 22nd once again aroused serious concern, and all parties urged Japan to cancel the wrong decision to discharge nuclear polluted water into the sea.

On April 13, 2021, protesters opposed the discharge of Fukushima nuclear polluted water into the sea outside the Prime Minister’s residence in Tokyo, Japan. (Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Du Yiyi)

　　People from Tokyo, Chiba and Fukushima held protests that day. The people who participated in the event said that the decision of the Atomic Energy Regulatory Commission is related to the future of Fukushima and the marine environment, but it is very irresponsible to make such an important decision without fully informing the Japanese people. Some people also said that they are resolutely opposed to discharging nuclear polluted water into the sea, and Japan can no longer pollute the ocean and pollute the earth.

　　The National Federation of Fishery Associations of Japan held a meeting in Tokyo a few days ago and unanimously adopted a special resolution of "reaffirming the position of resolutely opposing the discharge of nuclear polluted water from Fukushima into the sea". This is the third time that the group has passed a resolution against the discharge of Fukushima nuclear polluted water into the sea.

　　Japan’s irresponsible behavior triggered strong opposition from neighboring countries. The South Korean government said on the 22nd that it was worried about the Japanese nuclear regulatory agency’s approval of discharging pollutants into the sea, and it would take countermeasures. At the same time, South Korea will also strengthen cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency and strengthen the detection of domestic marine environmental radiation.

　　China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs reiterated on the 22nd that the disposal of nuclear polluted water in Fukushima is related to the global marine environment and the public health of Pacific Rim countries, and is by no means a private matter of Japan. China once again urges Japan to earnestly fulfill its due international obligations, dispose of nuclear polluted water in a scientific, open, transparent and safe way, and stop pushing the plan of discharging the sea. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China emphasizes that before full consultation and agreement are reached with stakeholders and relevant international institutions, shall not start the discharge of nuclear polluted water into the sea without authorization. If Japan insists on putting its own self-interest above the international public interest and taking a dangerous step, it will pay the price for its irresponsible behavior and leave a historical stain.

Special feature of 1905 film network ……

As explosions on the big screen, these films not only reflect the progress of our times, but also highlight the strength of China and the story of China. Rooted in the mainland soil, from the hands of Hong Kong directors, they can be said to blend the essence of the creation of the two places to the fullest.

It is worth mentioning that these films can stand out without a behind-the-scenes pusher — — Chairman of Bona Film Group.

In the past 20 years, Yu Dong and his Bona have made a lot of efforts for the prosperity of Hong Kong films and the development of Hong Kong directors going north. These efforts have also brought him 75 weighty Hong Kong Film Awards trophies.

The stories of Yu Dong and Hong Kong movies are endless.

This year coincides with the 25th anniversary of Hong Kong’s return to the motherland. At this memorable moment, we specially launched "Together — — A series of talk shows to celebrate the 25th anniversary of Hong Kong’s return to the motherland.

In this programme, Yu Dong, the chairman of Bona Film Group, was invited to be a guest, listening to him reminiscing about the eventful years and his indissoluble bond with Hong Kong films.

Issue hong kong filmsMy brothers and sistersBecome famous in world war I

I have worked with Hong Kong filmmakers for more than 20 years.

On July 1, 1997, Yu Dong, like many people in China, watched the broadcast of Hong Kong’s return to China with excitement, witnessing that at 0: 00, the British flag was lowered and the five-star red flag was raised, ending the century-old humiliating history of Hong Kong and welcoming the glorious moment of its return to the motherland.

At that time, he had never been to Hong Kong, and he only had a vision and imagination for this distant Pearl of the East.

The first trip to Hong Kong in winter started in 2001.

As the founder of Bona, he was invited to attend the Hong Kong Film Awards ceremony with the film My Brothers and Sisters. Shortly after Bona was founded, "My Brothers and Sisters" was their first Hong Kong film, which was found by a famous producer and released in winter.

Through four brothers and sisters who have been separated for many years, the film shows the kinship of flesh and blood thicker than water. It is a low-cost production, but it is better than sincere feelings and tears. It has achieved nearly 20 million box office success in China, second only to the annual box office runner-up.

Yu Dong still remembers that movie made him famous in Hong Kong during World War I.. It is this fate that has contributed to his cooperation with Hong Kong filmmakers for more than 20 years.

According to reports, Bona’s cooperation with Hong Kong filmmakers can be divided into three stages.

The first stage is to personally come to Hong Kong in winter to solicit business. At that time, he went into battle lightly and went to Hong Kong with a backpack to talk about the mainland distribution rights of the film. From approval to marketing to settlement, everything was crossing the river by feeling the stones;

The second stage is co-production with Hong Kong.

Thanks to the signing of the Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement between the Mainland and Hong Kong in 2003, the film and television exchanges between the two places have become increasingly close. Bona began to invest in Hong Kong films as an investor, and at the same time set up the first overseas distribution company in Hong Kong, taking Hong Kong as the axis to explore the distribution business in the international market.

Since 2011, the mainland film market in China has been expanding, and Yu Dong boldly invited Hong Kong directors to film in the north, which also means that the cooperation between Bona and Hong Kong filmmakers has officially entered the third stage.

Directed and starring, Hao won the box office of 880 million yuan, winning the box office championship in 2014 in one fell swoop, and at the same time set a new record for the box office of the main theme movie, completely pushing this stage to a small climax.

Since then, how to combine the "Red Classics" with the concepts of Hong Kong film production and modern film production has become the thinking direction of Bona and Hong Kong filmmakers.

Then came The Captain Chinese Doctors, operation mekong Operation Red Sea, and China film and television blockbuster directed by Tsui Hark and Lin Chaoxian.

Yu Dong commented that Hong Kong filmmakers are the most able to "survive the fittest". Maybe they are not familiar with the history and culture of the motherland, but they can always shoot some mainland themes with ease through hard work and have been successful many times.

For example, Liu Weiqiang filmed The Great Cause of Building the Army.Different from living in the mainland for a long time, we may be very familiar with the ins and outs before and after the founding of the army. As a Hong Kong director, he is very familiar with this calendar.historycanSay it’s a complete stranger.

Therefore, it took Liu Weiqiang half a year to collect all kinds of information, travel around museums, and get to know this story bit by bit, which led him to "The Great Cause of Building the Army" from a new perspective.

So is Tsui Hark and Lin Chaoxian filming The Battle at Lake Changjin.At first, they didn’t know much about the history of the War to Resist U.S. Aggression and Aid Korea, but they also spent a lot of time and energy studying this matter, and they finally got the wonderful light and shadow that everyone saw.

The Battle at Lake Changjin has made more than 20 million box office achievements in Hongkong, and many young people were even moved to tears when they watched the movie, and were moved by the feelings of the volunteers who did not fear the strong enemy and died heroically in a difficult environment. Yu Dong said, "As a special way of communication, movies have brought them deep feelings of home and country."

Bona is one of the film companies that have the closest communication with Hong Kong films. Many people have asked the founder this secret: how can Hong Kong directors stabilize the mainland market for a long time?

Yu Dong frankly talked with many other directors about this topic. He always didn’t want Hong Kong directors to enter the mainland. He insisted on making only one play and leaving after making money. Instead, he hoped that they could dig deep into this market and make more good films for China audiences.

As for how to do it? "This is not only a business, but also a concept of partners, and everyone develops together."

Bona will shoot a new work on the theme of Hong Kong’s return

"Nobody" leads three blockbusters and presents the top 20.

As this year marks the 25th anniversary of the return of Hong Kong, Bona is working with Bauhinia Culture Group and Xiaoxiang Film Studio to prepare a new film, which will be officially announced in the near future. In addition, Bona will also launch a series of excellent films, aiming to show the spirit of ordinary heroes by eulogizing this great and beautiful era.

"Nobody" is expected to be released this year as a gift to the upcoming 20 th National Congress.

Directed by, in addition to the previously officially announced, and, Yu Dong first announced the heroine as, and there are two unexposed actresses. The film is currently in full swing and is expected to be released around the 20 th National Congress.

The director’s "The End of the Sea is Grassland" is based on the real historical event of "3,000 orphans entering Inner Mongolia". It tells the story that in the early 1960s, his younger brother Du Siheng was abandoned by his helpless mother in Shanghai orphanage, and then he was transferred to Inner Mongolia to be raised. Sixty years later, in order to find the trace of his younger brother, his older brother Du Sihan began a journey of finding relatives on the Inner Mongolia grassland full of twists and turns.

Yu Dong, who has seen the film, talked about his impressions. "It was very touching and choked several times."

Directed "Ordinary Hero" is adapted from the true story of "rescuing a boy with a broken arm in Hetian, Xinjiang", and tells the story of a 7-year-old boy who completed emergency treatment by crossing 1,400 kilometers in eight golden hours. This is also the second part of Chen Guohui’s "Trilogy of Heroes" after "Heroes in Fire".

It is also worth noting that the project was officially established recently and named "Operation Red Sea 2: Operation Killer Whale", which will tell an epic naval story.

Yu Dong said that China’s dream of strengthening the military, especially the development of the navy, has made remarkable achievements in the world. The film was inspired by in-depth interviews with grassroots officers and soldiers, and the name "Action of Killer Whales" is also quite meaningful:"Killer whales are very aggressive. It is not the largest, but it has team spirit. When several killer whales hunt a larger whale, they all have this tactic. The film is called this name, and everyone will think of it. We will shoot submarines. "

At present, the starring lineup of the film has not yet been determined, but the production will still be under the overall responsibility of Lin Chaoxian from Hongkong.

Looking back on the years of Hong Kong’s return, Hong Kong filmmakers have developed in-depth exchanges with mainland filmmakers, and at the same time, they have also promoted the process of mutual integration between Hong Kong films and mainland films.

"This is the general trend, and it is also the inner demand of China audiences." Yu Dong said.

In his view, a movie can be called loudly, spread widely and stay. It requires filmmakers to make unremitting efforts, use artistic talent, use technical strength and use scientific and technological innovation to depict songs and scrolls for the times and show the images of our times. This is a mission and responsibility of the times.

"Looking back at the great journey of the motherland’s development in the future, we will definitely show young people in this era through the special artistic presentation of movies. There are such a group of ordinary people who stick to different positions and have made extraordinary careers and extraordinary achievements, so that today’s beautiful life can be achieved."

　　● During the opening season or graduation season, the paper ghostwriting groups lurking in various campus groups, e-commerce platforms and social platforms become active, and the words "professional ghostwriting" and "master team" are not uncommon. Especially from March to June every year, under the dual pressure of graduation and job hunting, the business volume and price of writing papers are always rising.

　　● It is one of the "false situations" explicitly stipulated by the relevant departments for college students to find someone to write papers on their behalf. A counterfeiter who has obtained a degree may have his degree revoked; Those who are still studying can be expelled from school; In addition to accepting disciplinary action, the on-the-job personnel should also inform their units.

　　● In order to control the chaos of writing papers, experts believe that the first step is to strictly control the export of papers, such as anonymous evaluation and defense of papers, so as to achieve "lenient entry and strict exit"; Secondly, in education, we should strengthen the teaching level of colleges and universities from the root, and systematically cultivate students’ research ability from the undergraduate stage, so that students can have basic thesis writing ability.

　　□ Our reporter Zhao Li

　　□ Intern of this newspaper Chen Lijia

　　A "paper writing" service with a price of several thousand yuan finally received a "first paper in life" written by freshmen, but when they wanted to refund the money, the other party was "into thin air".

　　During the opening season or graduation season, paper ghostwriting groups lurking in various campus groups, e-commerce platforms and social platforms become active, and words such as "professional ghostwriting" and "master team" are not uncommon. Especially from March to June every year, under the dual pressure of graduation and job hunting, the business volume and price of writing papers are always rising.

　　Recently, the reporter of "Rule of Law Daily" contacted a number of college students who were "pitted" by the paper writing service. At least they were cheated by hundreds of yuan, and many were cheated by thousands of yuan, and they swallowed their own bitter fruit.

　　"It is basically impossible to get the money back, and the other party also threatened to find a school and network exposure." A deceived student told reporters that many students were deceived, and the other party just saw that the students at school did not dare to tell.

　　It is understood that the Interim Provisions on Handling Violations of Scientific and Technological Activities, which came into effect on September 1, 2020, clearly stipulates that plagiarism, plagiarism, embezzlement, tampering with other people’s scientific and technological achievements, infringement of other people’s intellectual property rights, trading in academic papers, and writing on behalf of others are all violations.

　　Many experts interviewed by reporters pointed out that it is one of the "false situations" that college students find someone to write papers on their behalf. A counterfeiter who has obtained a degree may have his degree revoked; Those who are still studying can be expelled from school; In addition to accepting disciplinary action, the on-the-job personnel should also inform their units.

　　"It is a non-compliant thing in itself, and the liar seized this and took advantage of it." Xi Peizhi, deputy secretary-general of the Juvenile Law Research Association of Shanghai Law Society, said.

　　What kind of gray industrial chain is hidden behind the non-compliance? Recently, the reporter conducted an in-depth investigation from the "customer" on the demand side to the "writer" and "intermediary" on the supply side.

　　Looking for ghostwriting under pressure

　　Take a shortcut and fall into a scam.

　　In the investigation, the reporter found that although several major e-commerce platforms and forums have put an end to related searches such as "paper writing", the hidden business of "paper writing" still exists, and the means of "paper writing" institutions are more and more hidden. Students and businesses will still use words such as "writing guidance" and "article writing" to avoid risks. At the same time, if you type another similar keyword in the online search box, such as "thesis writing", there will be topics and groups such as "we will help you write your thesis" and "thesis guidance", and nearly half of the posts in it are about finding articles to write and recruiting writers.

　　Among the types of articles written on behalf of others, the proportion of papers in general courses and extension courses in universities is often high. However, some students, because of their limited research ability, spend a lot of money to ask writers to write their graduation thesis. The students thought that they had found a shortcut to write papers, but they actually stepped into a scam.

　　Li Ran (a pseudonym) graduated from a university in Zhejiang last year, recalling the experience of getting someone to write her graduation thesis near graduation, she is still annoyed.

　　"Because there is no way to start the graduation thesis, and the time for handing in the thesis is getting closer and closer, the idea of finding someone to write it for me came into being. At the beginning, I found a person to write on the e-commerce platform, and as a result, the other party submitted the manuscript slowly, and the repetition rate of the manuscript finally submitted was extremely high. I immediately found another team, and the other party claimed to be a professional master team. As a result, the articles sent were logically confused and the repetition rate remained high. " Li Ran said that she had invested several thousand yuan before and after, and finally she could only accept the planting.

　　In fact, several thousand yuan is only the price of writing undergraduate graduation thesis. Recently, when the reporter approached the writing team as a customer, he found that if he wrote the master’s thesis, the cost would be as high as tens of thousands of yuan.

　　The reporter also contacted five students from a university in Beijing who had asked for ghostwriting. They came from science and engineering, humanities and social sciences and art disciplines, and ghostwriters came from campus groups, e-commerce platforms and second-hand trading platforms. Their experience of being deceived has the following common problems:

　　The repetition rate is too high. The above-mentioned interviewed students all said that at the beginning of the contact, the writer or intermediary would reassure the customer with the reply of "check the article again before submitting it to the customer". But in the end, most of the papers were copied and pasted, and the duplicate checking report given by the writer was either detected and issued on an informal free duplicate checking website, or was obtained by directly erasing the real data from a false P-picture.

　　Sit on the ground and start at a price. After submitting the manuscript, the customer found that the quality of the article was not up to standard and asked for rectification. The writer said that if he wanted to modify the article, he would have to pay again, otherwise he would not modify it. After the article is written, the customer finds that the encrypted file can’t be opened normally or needs other payment channels. At this time, the customer often needs to pay an extra fee as the "browsing fee" of the article.

　　False "packaging". "University professor" and "professional master team" are the titles commonly used by writers and intermediary teams, but the quality of the final articles is quite different from that advertised by the other party. Lin Lang (a pseudonym) is a sophomore in a university in Beijing. Because of his heavy schoolwork, he asked someone to write a course paper online, and the final paper was not satisfactory and the layout was messy. Later, he learned that the other party was a freshman, and the article he wrote for him was actually the other party’s first university paper.

　　Threaten buyers. After being cheated, the five students interviewed went to question the writers or the intermediary customer service, and in the end they all broke up in discord, either because they were blacked out by the other party, or when they found the shop, they found that it had already been "empty", and some even threatened to upload the article to the network and tell the school teacher. Finally, students looking for ghostwriters often choose to secretly eat boring losses.

　　The reporter asked the five students if they had ever thought about protecting their "rights and interests", and they all replied "no" because it was a wrong choice to find ghostwriting, and once it was exposed, the consequences would be more serious.

　　The writer base is very large.

　　Just for speed, regardless of major

　　In the whole industrial chain of paper writing, there is a huge base of writers, and this group produces written manuscripts according to the needs of customers to earn fees.

　　"The first contact with ghostwriting was because I wanted to earn some pocket money and living expenses. This line of entry is not high, which is a relatively simple sideline. " Xiao Jing, a writer who has been in the business for three years, told reporters that because it is a low threshold, everyone who is a writer has it.

　　The reporter’s investigation found that the writer’s working mode mainly includes two types: the first type is leaning against a big tree. Behind this kind of writers is the intermediary team. In the industrial chain of writing papers, the intermediary itself cannot directly provide ghostwriting services for customers, but finds and arranges writers for customers. They not only master a large number of customer resources, but also manage a large number of writers.

　　The reporter entered a group of writers named "No.5 Group" after adding the contact information of the other party through the recruitment post of writers posted on the social platform by Nibi Feishu Technology (Longyan) Co., Ltd. At the beginning of joining the group, the other party simply asked the reporter about his education and major, and asked the reporter to provide his phone number and corresponding works. After confirming the reporter’s basic situation, the other party sent the reporter a detailed Code of Practice for Part-time Cooperation of Writers, saying that it is forbidden to take private orders and add customer WeChat privately, reply to customer messages online at all times, submit the manuscript strictly according to the agreed time, and maintain the favorable rate. According to the regulations of the team, the higher the praise, the more stable and high-quality customers they can get, and they can enjoy the priority to send orders to get higher settlement rewards.

　　The reporter’s investigation found that "it is forbidden to contact customers privately", which is almost an iron law that all writers who require cooperation from intermediaries must abide by.

　　This kind of mode also includes the cooperation between intermediary and writer, which is common in intermediaries who have been engaged in writing papers for a long time. Due to the stricter requirements for paper review in recent years, for the sake of safety, they no longer set up a group of writers, but choose to send orders alone or in a circle of friends, and the writers who are willing to take orders will communicate with the intermediary alone.

　　The reporter contacted a "professional" intermediary teacher who is responsible for writing papers. After a brief understanding of the reporter’s educational level, Teacher Mi asked, "Can you write a paper on an unrelated subject?" According to its introduction, the key point is not how professional the paper is written, and whether it is relevant or not is not important, but to be fast and submit the manuscript on time.

　　The second category is the one-on-one type. Some writers decide to "go it alone" after working with the intermediary for a period of time, mostly because they hope to get higher income.

　　Xiao Jing was a junior when she first came into contact with the author of the thesis, and adopted the mode of cooperation with the intermediary. Later, she added the contact information of the customer privately, only to find that the intermediary earned more than 50% of the difference between the customer and the writer. "Moreover, the number of writers in the group is increasing, the average price of each order has been declining, and the writers earn less and less. As an intermediary, there is not only one group of writers in hand, and the profit is huge."

　　The intermediary team has a clear division of labor.

　　Earn the difference and gain income

　　These intermediary teams that manage many writers are often scattered in e-commerce platforms, social platforms and major campus groups on a large scale. Usually, they will use some professional names to show their professionalism, such as "XXX Education", "XXX Technology Co., Ltd." and "XXX Studio".

　　In the group of writers, the reporter found that the intermediary team for writing papers was composed of promoters, personnel commissioners, dispatchers and receptionists. Promoters promote ghostwriting teams to student groups in colleges and universities to find customers; Personnel Commissioner manages writers; The dispatcher distributes the task of writing on behalf of the writers; The receptionist is responsible for a series of work to maintain customer relationship and favorable rate. Treating different groups, team members will use different social accounts, and they are very cautious about the identity source of the applicants.

　　The reporter’s investigation found that some intermediaries were exposed by a large number of complaints for deceiving students and writers, but they were still active in various e-commerce platforms and campus groups after "changing their faces", and "business" flourished.

　　In addition, some intermediaries have contracted a whole "production line" for writing and publishing papers in academic journals, and the price of this model is often higher.

　　A customer service staff member of 360 Journal Network said that the price of an article in the company is 7,500 yuan, of which the price for writing a paper of 4,000 to 5,000 characters is 1,500 yuan, and the price for publishing is 6,000 yuan.

　　Editor Lin, who once worked in a paper agency, told the reporter: "Now, there are too few periodicals, especially core periodicals, and there are too many college staff who need to send papers. Generally, it is not easy for authors to vote for magazines themselves, and they don’t want to spend energy writing, so most of them will find an agency. For example, if you want to send a paper in a journal and find an intermediary, the intermediary will charge the author a certain fee, plus you can earn an extra difference when you find a writer to write, which is far more than double the profit. "

　　Establish a scientific evaluation system

　　Take measures to control chaos at the same time

　　For the chaos of writing papers, the relevant state departments have been taking action.

　　According to the Measures for Handling Dissertation Falsification (hereinafter referred to as the Measures) implemented by the Ministry of Education in 2013, if the dissertations of degree applicants are falsified, such as being purchased or written by others, their qualifications for degree application may be cancelled, and within three years, all degree-granting units may no longer accept their degree applications. If you are a student, your school can expel you from school. The "Measures" also stipulate that students who write or sell dissertations for others may be expelled from school; Those who belong to school teachers or other staff members may be dismissed or terminate the employment contract.

　　The Interim Provisions on Handling Violations of Scientific and Technological Activities, which came into effect on September 1, 2020, clearly stipulates that plagiarism, embezzlement, tampering with other people’s scientific and technological achievements, infringement of other people’s intellectual property rights, trading in academic papers, and writing on behalf of others are all illegal acts.

　　This has also become the main reason why many students dare not report to the police and swallow the bitter fruit after being deceived.

　　Lu Yanbin, director of the research office of the rule of law and national conditions of the Institute of Law of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told reporters that the main reason why the chaos in the paper has been repeatedly banned is the supply and demand problem. On the demand side, the school lacks systematic cultivation of students’ basic research ability, and students themselves lack a series of basic academic abilities needed in the process of thesis writing, so their thesis level has not been systematically improved, resulting in many students unable to complete a qualified thesis independently.

　　In addition, Lv Yanbin also pointed out that under the current periodical-oriented academic evaluation environment, some colleges and universities require students and young teachers to publish their papers in core periodicals as the requirements for graduation or evaluation of professional titles, which further expands the contradiction between supply and demand in the current situation that periodical space is in short supply. Some students and scholars choose to find someone to help them write for them in order to publish articles more quickly and meet the requirements of colleges and universities.

　　On the supply side, Xi Peizhi believes that a large number of ghostwriting teams that frequently send advertisements to college groups in the market also provide a hotbed for this kind of chaos in ghostwriting.

　　How to deal with this chaos? Lv Yanbin believes that the first step is to strictly control the export of papers, such as anonymous evaluation and defense of papers, so as to be "lenient and strict"; Secondly, in education, we should strengthen the teaching level of colleges and universities from the root, and systematically cultivate students’ research ability from the undergraduate stage, so that students can have basic thesis writing ability.

　　"I hope that China can introduce an administrative regulation. Schools should also earnestly strengthen their responsibilities, draw a red line for this kind of academic misconduct, and at the same time try their best to improve colleges and universities ‘ On literature ’ And ‘ Project-only theory ’ The indicators allow teachers to have more thoughts and energy to cultivate students’ comprehensive literacy. " Xi cultivation theory.

Toyota Flanders is a very practical and stable SUV model. It has a comfortable driving experience and enough space, suitable for family travel or long-distance travel. At the same time, the fuel consumption performance of this car is also excellent, which can save you a lot of fuel costs. Overall, Toyota Flanders is a good choice.

Mercedes -AMG One uses a 1.6T V6 turbocharged engine from F1 racing car, which has800 horsepowerThe amazing output. Exaggerated vents are designed on the hood, so as to quickly guide the hot air flow from both sides and ensure that the air can be quickly filled into the roof. The rear of the car is equipped with a huge NACA vent, which effectively reduces the temperature of the engine and gearbox, while the retractable spoiler improves the balance and downforce of the whole car.

In the interior, Mercedes -AMG One uses a lot of carbon fiber materials, and the steering wheel is inspired by F1 racing cars, which not only has excellent handling sense, but also has great personality. The bucket seat provides the driver with an excellent sense of package. Although the comfort may not be as good as that of the daily driving vehicle, it performs well in performance. The car is equipped with three large LCD screens, including instrument panel, central control panel and media rearview mirror display on the ceiling, which provides rich information for drivers.

The chassis of the car adopts carbon fiber single shell design, which is light and rigid, further improving the performance of the car. The suspension system adopts four-wheel multi-link structure, and the traditional tubular beam is replaced by springs and shock absorbers, which improves the handling and stability of the vehicle. The ceramic brake is used in the braking system, which not only reduces the unsprung weight, but also provides a stable and high-performance braking force.

Mercedes -AMG One is equipped with a 1.6L V6 mid-turbocharged engine, with a maximum speed of 11,000 rpm, a maximum horsepower of 603Ps and a thermal efficiency of 40%. These impressive data fully demonstrate the powerful performance of this engine and the position of Mercedes -AMG One as a high-performance supercar.

The competition in the automobile market is still very fierce. What Xiaobian brings today is. Let’s take a look at it together.

Let’s take a look at the appearance of the Haval big dog first. The front of the Haval big dog is very concise and looks sporty. Then the comfortable headlight design is adopted, and the visual effect coincides with the positioning of the whole vehicle. The car is equipped with LED daytime running lights, front fog lights, automatic opening and closing, adaptive far and near light, delayed closing and so on. Coming to the side of the car body, the size of the car body is 4620MM*1890MM*1780MM, and the car adopts solid lines. The side circumference looks very young and individual, and it is eye-catching with large-sized thick-walled tires. In the rear part, the rear looks domineering, and the taillights show a capable design style, which is very young.

Sitting in the car, the interior looks very simple and avant-garde. The steering wheel of the car is very dynamic in shape, made of leather and cool in shape. From the central control point of view, the central control screen with 12.3-inch touch-sensitive liquid crystal makes the interior design quite layered and looks scientific and technological. The dashboard and seats are equally eye-catching, and the dashboard design is remarkable, highlighting the trendy temperament. The car adopts imitation leather seats, which are wrapped in place, with exquisite materials and comfortable ride.

Haval Big Dog is matched with a wet dual clutch (DCT) gearbox, with a maximum power of 175KW and a maximum torque of 385N.m, and its power performance is good.

The car is equipped with car networking, driving mode selection, remote control key, rear wiper, engine start-stop and other configurations, and the configuration has reached the mainstream level of the same level.

The car introduced today is not only eye-catching in space, but also has reached the mainstream level in various configurations, and there is nothing to be picky about driving experience and space experience. If you are planning to buy a car, then the car above is worth considering.

　　Can you launch crowdfunding with a car and a house? Recently, a fund-raising event for a burned family in Shunde, Guangdong Province caused controversy. The two families traveled in the same car, and they were taken to the hospital for emergency treatment after an accident of car fire on the way. Faced with huge medical expenses, he initiated a fundraising request on an online public welfare crowdfunding platform and quickly completed the fundraising goal of 6 million yuan. Subsequently, Liang’s burned family, who received a donation of 4 million yuan, was exposed by netizens as having a house, a car and an industry, and some netizens questioned it. (Voice of China, August 13th)

　　In this controversy, both the burned family and the questioning netizens have reasonable points. The brother of the injured said that the younger brother’s family had a workshop, a self-built house and a car. The family situation was not bad, but it was not rich. "Paying millions of yuan for huge medical expenses is still far from enough." In the eyes of some netizens, their previous practice of not telling their families the real situation blurred the boundary between giving timely help in the snow and icing on the cake, and they also felt cheated.

　　The most critical problem is the asymmetry of fundraising information. Because the donors can’t truly and comprehensively understand the basic family status of the fundraiser during crowdfunding, once this information is exposed afterwards and it is found that they are not so difficult, it is easy to have a negative feeling of being consumed in good faith. In fact, looking back at the controversial cases such as the Rohr incident, the death of Xiao Fengya, and the "selling miserable anti-cancer up owners", the absence of key fundraising information is the important reason why the incident has been "reversed" again and again and the parties (families) have been bitten back.

　　On the one hand, in order to get more donations, some help-seekers will deliberately make selective presentations, deliberately highlight their particularly "miserable" and "difficult" side, and conceal personal information that is "not conducive" to sympathy. Especially in the story-telling and emotional expression from the media, the softest part of the public’s heart is easily triggered, and it is generous after the "tears" are accurately hit.

　　On the other hand, such concealment and misleading are likely to lay the groundwork for this later "reversal". When the situation of help seekers becomes the focus, the lack of relevant information will leave too much room for "brain supplement" and even become a hotbed for rumors. In the Xiaofengya incident, the parents of the sick girl were once accused of using their children’s illness to raise money and then gave up treatment. With the repeated doubts about fraudulent donations, unfounded statements such as "Xiao Fengya was abused by her parents" and "son preference" became popular, making the fundraising activities that were originally full of goodwill eventually become a chicken feather.

　　Truth is the basis and premise of developing public welfare activities. In the case of a burned family in Guangdong, only when the real economic situation of the family is known can people make judgments according to the necessity and urgency of the matter, so as to decide whether or not to donate and how much to donate. If the information is not fully disclosed, it will actually hurt the authenticity and disrespect the right to know of caring people.

　　Many times, some help-seekers have concerns that they can’t get social sympathy after they announce that they have a house and a car. As Wang Zhenyao, a public welfare expert, pointed out, the public generally has a particularly miserable and helpless imagination of the recipients. We should also realize that with the improvement of the overall living standard of society, the background and actual situation of help seekers are also very different. In the face of unexpected disasters that cost millions of dollars, not being "poor" at home does not mean that there are no difficulties. Especially in the case that a large amount of money is needed for medical treatment in the short term, even if you have a house and a car, it does not mean that you can get the money at once. In this regard, the public’s charity concept should also keep pace with the times, and be more understanding rather than demanding of those in trouble.

　　In recent years, the development of Internet public welfare crowdfunding platform has indeed provided an important channel for the public to convey goodwill and help the poor. However, similar cases in which public welfare is marketed and goodwill is used also put forward higher requirements for the professionalism and scientificity of platform operation. To effectively solve the problem of asymmetric donor information, we should start with the system design.

　　For example, for key information such as the basic situation of the family, users can’t just fill it in truthfully at the front end, and the platform should also do a good job of fact checking and do its duty of prompting for information risks. For the flow of donations, we should also try our best to achieve openness, transparency and earmarking, so as to avoid making the money a confused account.

　　The goodwill of the public is an expression of good feelings. However, such feelings should not be intentionally incited or abused casually. It should be a consensus to return public welfare to a rational and professional track and reduce misunderstandings and injuries caused by information asymmetry.

　　Ren Guanqing Source: China Youth Daily