Promote the real estate market to stabilize and rebound.
The Political Bureau of the Central Committee recently held a meeting and pointed out that it is necessary to adapt to the new situation that the supply and demand relationship in China’s real estate market has undergone major changes, adjust and optimize real estate policies in a timely manner, and make good use of the policy toolbox to better meet the rigid and improved housing needs of residents and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
What does it mean that the relationship between supply and demand in the market has changed significantly? How to treat the current real estate market situation? How to further promote the real estate market to stabilize and rebound? The reporter interviewed the heads of relevant departments and experts and scholars.
Significant changes have taken place in the relationship between supply and demand.
In the first half of this year, the real estate market showed some new features.
According to the relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the online signing data of commercial housing shows that in the first half of the year, the transaction volume of new and second-hand houses was 1.03 billion square meters, up 23.4% year-on-year, up 1.6% compared with the average of the same period in the past three years. This shows that the overall transaction volume of new houses and second-hand houses is stable. With the real estate market entering the "stock age", the transaction structure has changed accordingly, and the proportion of second-hand housing transactions in the transaction volume has increased.
In terms of completion, in the first half of the year, the completed housing area in China was 340 million square meters, up 19.0% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 4.3 percentage points higher than that in the first quarter. The obvious increase in the completed area is due to the smooth progress of the building, which has accelerated the completion progress of real estate development projects.
From the point of view of sale, the area of commercial housing for sale has been stable at about 640 million square meters this year, and the supply and demand situation is relatively stable. From the price point of view, in June, housing prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities rose and fell, among which the sales price of new commercial housing rose in 27 cities year-on-year, an increase of one over May.
Yu Xiaofen, dean of China Institute of Housing and Real Estate, Zhejiang University of Technology, believes that in the complicated domestic and international economic environment, the online signing volume of new and second-hand houses in the first half of the year still maintained growth, and the prices of 70 large and medium-sized cities did not fall generally, and the price fluctuations were within a reasonable range. Generally speaking, combined with the fact that the per capita housing construction area of urban residents in China has reached 41 square meters in 2021, the national population has decreased by 850,000 in 2022, the urbanization rate of permanent residents has reached 65.22%, and the international economic recovery is weak and domestic demand is insufficient, the relationship between supply and demand in the real estate market has undergone major changes. However, compared with other industries, real estate still shows strong resilience.
According to the relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the growth rate of market turnover slowed down in the second quarter, mainly because the real estate market was greatly affected by the macro environment, the employment pressure of residents increased, the income expectation weakened, the ability and willingness to buy houses declined, and the recovery of buying houses as a mass consumption was relatively lagging behind. In the second half of the year, with the further recovery of the macro economy, residents’ housing consumption and housing enterprises’ willingness to invest will also be gradually restored.
Liu Hongyu, director of Tsinghua University Real Estate Research Institute, believes that China’s new commercial housing market has changed from a seller’s market to a buyer’s market. When entering the stage of oversupply in the buyer’s market, the government should gradually optimize and adjust the demand management policy on the premise of adhering to the positioning of "housing and not speculating". At the same time, fiscal, taxation and financial policies can be adopted to encourage residents to improve housing conditions to increase market demand, and optimize the timing, structure and spatial distribution of new housing supply through land supply and other channels to promote a new balance between supply and demand in the real estate market.
Baojiaolou made positive progress.
Since the second half of 2021, some real estate enterprises that have long relied on the mode of "high debt, high leverage and high turnover" have suffered from poor sales repayment, blocked new financing and problems in the capital chain, resulting in the suspension or overdue delivery of some commercial housing projects, which has damaged the legitimate rights and interests of buyers.
In view of the difficulties in delivery of some commercial residential projects, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, together with the Ministry of Finance, the People’s Bank of China and other departments, supported the construction and delivery of the sold overdue residential projects by leveraging special loans from policy banks and supporting financing from commercial banks. At present, the overall resumption rate of the special loan project of Baojiaolou is close to 100%, and more than 1.65 million sets of housing have been delivered. The work of guaranteeing the delivery of the building was smoothly promoted, which accelerated the completion progress of real estate development projects, effectively prevented the risk of late delivery of commercial housing, boosted the confidence of buyers and stabilized market expectations.
Baojiaolou promoted the orderly resolution of risks in the real estate market. Pu Zhan, deputy director of the Policy Research Center of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, believes that with the support and guidance of the central government, local governments have implemented territorial responsibilities, compacted the main responsibility of real estate enterprises for self-help, and promoted the completion and delivery of sold overdue projects through solid work. The work of guaranteeing the delivery of the building protects the legitimate rights and interests of the buyers, helps to speed up the clearing of industry risks and stabilize market confidence.
Yu Xiaofen believes that since the implementation of Baojiaolou, it has effectively eliminated the worries of potential buyers, reduced the project arrears and contract disputes of downstream enterprises, revitalized the assets of real estate enterprises, and effectively prevented the project risks from evolving into social risks, and the risks of real estate enterprises from spilling over into systemic risks.
Liu Hongyu believes that Baojiaolou is the moral bottom line for the development of the industry and the basis for the whole society, especially potential buyers, to maintain trust and confidence in the real estate industry and the real estate market. Actively promoting the security building is conducive to increasing confidence, building trust and stabilizing expectations. The task of guaranteeing the delivery of property is still arduous, so it is necessary to further increase policy support, especially to ensure the implementation of 16 measures of financial support for real estate and the loan support plan for guaranteeing the delivery of property, so as to alleviate the shortage of capital chain.
Adjust and optimize industrial policies in a timely manner.
Politburo meeting of the Chinese Communist Party pointed out that "to adapt to the new situation of great changes in the relationship between supply and demand in China’s real estate market and adjust and optimize the real estate policy in a timely manner", Ni Hong, Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, held a corporate forum and put forward "further implementation of policies and measures such as reducing the down payment ratio and loan interest rate for purchasing the first home, reducing taxes and fees for improving the purchase of housing, and’ recognizing the house without repaying the loan’ for personal housing loans".
Subsequently, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and other cities have voiced their voices one after another, saying that they will promptly implement the requirements of relevant meetings in light of the actual real estate situation in this city to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. The People’s Bank of China expressed its support for the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. Due to the precise implementation of differentiated housing credit policies by the city, we will continue to guide the downward trend of individual housing loan interest rates and down payment ratios to better meet the rigid and improved housing needs of residents. Guide commercial banks to adjust the interest rate of existing individual housing loans in an orderly manner according to law.
From Politburo meeting of the Chinese Communist Party to the authorities’ explicit requirements, and then to the statements of first-tier cities, positive signals have been released, and the real estate regulation and control policies will be further adjusted and optimized, which is expected to inject strong impetus into the stabilization and recovery of the real estate market.
How to further promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market?
Pu Zhan believes that in order to better meet the rigid and improved housing needs of residents, the optimization policies should be adjusted in a targeted manner. For example, individual housing loans "do not need to recognize loans", as long as there is no room under the name of the purchaser, you can enjoy the down payment and interest rate standard of the first home loan. These policy adjustments can enable buyers to buy houses with lower down payment and more favorable loan interest rates, lower the threshold for buying houses, reduce the pressure of repaying loans, and help to enhance market confidence and stabilize the real estate market.
Yu Xiaofen believes that continuing to consolidate the stabilization and recovery of the real estate market is of great significance for protecting people’s livelihood, preventing risks and stabilizing growth. It is necessary to further reduce the mortgage interest rate and down payment ratio, implement "no need to recognize the loan", reduce the transaction deed tax, and promote the "transfer with mortgage" of second-hand houses to stabilize market demand; Mega-cities actively and steadily promote the transformation of villages in cities, and cities with conditions steadily promote the organic renewal of cities and stabilize the market scale; Create the same financing environment for private enterprises and state-owned enterprises, improve the supervision of pre-sale funds, increase financial support, etc., and stabilize real estate enterprises.
Lu Huaxiang, director of the Institute of Housing and Residential Areas of China Urban Planning and Design Institute, believes that in addition to "making good use of the policy toolbox because of the city’s policy", it is necessary to re-understand the law of real estate development and its economic and social impact, and re-understand the relationship between real estate and other economic sectors, which will fundamentally enhance confidence in the long-term development of the real estate industry. (Kang Shu)
Source: Economic Daily
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